In just one month, 29 shows will be battling it out to see who can snag the most Tony awards. Predicting the Tonys has always been a bit messy, and the competitive 2025 Broadway season doesn’t make that task any easier. But what do the numbers have to say?

Nominations Announced

Just last Thursday, the nominations for the awards ceremony were announced live on The Tony Awards YouTube channel (see our live coverage here). Out of 42 eligible shows, 29 received nominations, with the musicals “Buena Vista Social Club,” “Death Becomes Her” and “Maybe Happy Ending” leading the pack with 10 nominations each. Musicals “Dead Outlaw” and “Sunset Blvd.” and plays “John Proctor is the Villain” and “The Hills of California” follow closely behind with seven nominations.

Do the Tonys Even Matter?

The next few weeks will be filled with producers scrambling to persuade the Tony voters that their show deserves the trophy. Add up all the campaigning and shows can spend anywhere from $100,000 to $1 million, and that’s not even including the cost of tickets for each of the Tony voters.

Before getting into predicting who will take home the awards it’s important to ask: is it even worth it?

The answer: it’s complicated.

The Tonys are the only national telecast that celebrates the theatre community. They have the capability to introduce millions of people to shows, potentially selling a lot of tickets. However, viewership of the ceremony has been steadily going down for years, with a spike in 2016 due only to the extreme success of “Hamilton.”

Studies have also shown that the nominations themselves have the power to sell more tickets than actually winning, so the shows nominated for the 2025 Tonys have already succeeded majorly. The only award that can drastically increase the lifespan of a show is a “Best Overall Award” such as Best Musical or Best Play.

There are shows that have done abysmal in the awards circuit and yet still see success. Last year “The Great Gatsby” received only one nomination, but is still going strong on Broadway most likely due to its stunt casting and strong social media presence.

On the other hand, not receiving any nominations can be a death sentence for shows already performing poorly. After receiving no Tony nominations, the musical “Redwood” starring Idina Menzel just announced it would be closing on May 18th, 3 months earlier than originally stated.

The most important part of the Tony awards, and what most people actually watch for, is not the awards themselves but the performances put on by the nominated shows. Even though viewership of the telecast is down, these performances still put millions of new eyes on shows. These performances are often the first impressions for many who don’t have ready access to Broadway. Strong performance at the ceremony can be more of a make or break moment than actually getting an award.

How Can We Predict?

While it is extremely difficult to accurately predict how the awards will be distributed (there wouldn’t be surprise winners and snubs if it was easy), there are some things we can look at to get an idea about which shows stand a stronger chance of coming out on top.

One thing we can look at is how well a show is doing in the Box Office. How much money is the show making? How many seats are being filled up? While not a completely accurate metric (for example the extremely popular musical “Wicked” lost to “Avenue Q” in 2004), a decrease in grosses can indicate that a show not appealing to general audiences may also not appeal to Tony voters.

Critics’ ratings are another metric that can be used to deem the success and appeal of shows, especially when looking at the “Best Overall Awards.”

As we get closer and closer to the awards ceremony, many people will be trying their best to accurately predict the winners. While you get yours locked in, you can study up on the music from this season’s nominated shows with the playlist below.

Think you know who will be taking home the trophies? Let us know!