Nearly every poll in the year leading up to the 2025 Canadian federal election showed the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, ahead of the Liberals by more than 20 points. A Conservative landslide seemed all but certain. But by the early evening of April 28, it was clear that Mark Carney and the Liberal Party had managed an astonishing comeback.

So, how did it happen? For starters, President Donald Trump thinks he’s the reason. 

Trump’s Obsession with the North

Trump’s fixation on Canada began late last year when he floated the idea of the country becoming America’s 51st state. He even referred to then–Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau” after a dinner at Mar-a-Lago in early December.

Since, he’s imposed national security tariffs (justified by claims about Canada’s role in fentanyl trafficking), placed large duties on Canadian steel, aluminum, and auto exports, and repeatedly questioned the value of trade agreements like CUSMA. 

Public sentiment toward Trump, and the US more broadly, has soured dramatically across Canada. Almost two-thirds of Canadains say Trump’s “expressed interest to make Canada the 51st American State” must be taken “very seriously,” according to a recent survey. A slim majority even say they are personally willing to defend Canada from a military threat from the US. 

Was defending Canadian sovereignty the number-one issue on the ballot? Trump certainly thinks so.

On the day of the election, The Atlantic released a condensed transcript of an interview with Trump, in which he boasted: “Until I came along, remember that the conservative was leading by 25 points. Then I was disliked by enough Canadians that I’ve thrown the election into a close call, right?”

Undoubtedly, the so-called Trump effect played a major role in erasing the Conservatives’ commanding lead — but it wasn’t the only factor behind the party’s downfall.

Trudeau’s Exit Changed the Game

Beyond Trump’s influence, the election turned when longtime Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau  announced his resignation on Jan. 6th. His departure followed the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland in December, who cited a lack of confidence in Trudeau’s ability to effectively confront Trump.

Trudeau had led for almost a decade, and over that decade, Canada’s GDP had only grown 1.4%. His tenure was marked by severe economic challenges, such as soaring inflation during the pandemic, high unemployment, and a remarkable affordability crisis. 

Poilievre, a career politician, who was first elected to parliament at age 25, ran a tight campaign that opposed each of Trudeau’s economic misguidances: he prioritized housing, affordability, and fighting crime, and led a sharp crusade against the much-hated carbon tax the Liberals implemented in 2019. His message was clear: “Canada broken, Trudeau bad, and axe the [carbon] tax.” 

But all that changed on March 9th, when the Liberals elected Mark Carney to be party leader and the new prime minister. Carney, who led the Bank of Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and the Bank of England during Brexit, was viewed as a calm, moderate alternative to Trudeau. His steady reputation appealed to an anxious electorate. He quickly distanced himself from the carbon tax, stripping the Conservatives of one of their most dependable talking points. 

Still, it wasn’t until Trump escalated his threats against Canada that the polls truly began to shift.

The New Question on the Ballot: Who Will Stand Up to Trump?

Poilievre struggled to detach himself from Trump’s policy and rhetoric. And much of his base, including many of his MPs, openly admired Trump. As Trump launched more and more attacks on Canada, Poilievre’s perceived alignment with Trump became a massive red flag.

While Poilievre is a career politician, not a businessman, he and Trump shared a number of prominent goals: shrinking government, trimming taxes and social services, championing fossil fuel development, and opposing “woke” culture. These similarities landed Poilievre in a political bind: distancing himself from Trump risked alienating his core supporters, while aligning threatened to repel the broader electorate.

Meanwhile, Carney swiftly positioned himself as the only leader capable of standing up to Trump. He frequently warned Canadians that Trump posed a direct threat to the country’s sovereignty and economy. In one of his last pushes for votes, at a rally in Edmonton, Alberta, he told his audience: “President Trump has ruptured the global economy… America’s leadership of the global economy is over. It’s still in play, but it is a tragedy, and our new reality… in this trade war, just like in hockey, we will win.”

His final major rally, staged at the foot of the Ambassador Bridge between Windsor and Detroit — a critical symbol of Canada-U.S. trade — reinforced the message: he was confident that he was the one to protect Canada from American overreach.

Even some of Carney’s critics acknowledged the effectiveness of his strategy. Kevin O’Leary, a Canadian businessman with ties to Trump and a former contender for the Conservative leadership, told the BBC that Carney’s centering his campaign against Trump was likely his key to success. 

“Canadians are deeply frustrated with America right now, and Carney tapped into that,” O’Leary told the BBC on the eve of the election. “He managed to shift attention away from his own missteps and say, ‘Don’t look at me—look south of the border. I’m the one who can protect you.’”

Did Trump Cost the Conservatives the Election?

Carney’s victory wasn’t the result of a single factor, but rather, a perfect storm: a leadership reset, a sharpened Liberal economic message, and a political opponent caught in Trump’s crossfire. Trump’s posturing toward Canada undeniably changed the course of the election, making it a question of national identity and sovereignty.

In such an environment, Carney offered voters something Poilievre could not: the promise of a leader who could go toe-to-toe with an unpredictable U.S. president, without mirroring him. He reoriented the campaign away from past Liberal failures and toward a forward-looking vision of Canada’s place in a more hostile world.

In the end, Carney’s anti-Trump stance was not his only playing card — but perhaps, it was his winning one.